Part 1 of a 3 part series -- Does “the one true church” have a membership recruitment/convert baptism problem?

(As you read this post, I'd like you to imagine that you're a manager, and you have a team of people who are assigned to work on a specific project. How is your team doing? If they're struggling, why? For how long? Finally, what can be done to straighten out your team (with at least a modest sense of urgency)? I look forward to reading your observations in the comments).

"Afterward he appeared unto the eleven as they sat at meat, and upbraided them with their unbelief and hardness of heart, because they believed not them which had seen him after he was risen.

And he said unto them, Go ye into all the world, and preach the gospel to every creature.

He that believeth and is baptized shall be saved; but he that believeth not shall be damned." [1] 

"preach my gospel unto every creature who has not received it" [2] 

If ever there was a charge given to the church, it's to go into the world and take the gospel to every creature. Pres. Oaks said, "To proclaim the good news of the gospel of Jesus Christ is a fundamental principle of the Christian faith." [3]  

It's also a responsibility which squarely rests upon the shoulders of the Twelve:

"I give unto you my servant Brigham Young to be a president over the Twelve traveling council; Which Twelve hold the keys to open up the authority of my kingdom upon the four corners of the earth, and after that to send my word to every creature." [4] 

"The responsibility to proclaim the gospel of Jesus Christ to all the world is explicitly given to those who were called and ordained Apostles of the Lord." [5] 

In implementing this directive, the Lord charged His servants to "seek not the things of this world but seek ye first to build up the kingdom of God." [6] That means whatever pertains to this world - no matter what it is - doesn't hold a candle to building God's kingdom. That's why Pres. Benson said, "Preaching the saving principles of the gospel has ever been a great responsibility of first importance." [7] 

So, how is that "Go ye into all the world," "Preach the gospel to every creature" and baptize directive going?

1990: Apostle Russell M. Nelson prophesied the following at a January 7, 1990 BYU devotional:

"Church membership has just passed the seven million mark. Conservative projections indicate that by the year 2000, the Church will have doubled in size. Its membership will then number at least fourteen million. While we now have 1,730 stakes, by the end of the decade there will be more than 3,600 stakes and many more temples. We will be precisely on course in fulfillment of scriptural prophecy that this work will eventually and literally fill the earth (see D&C 65:2)." [8] 

Reality check: By the end of the year 2000 church membership stood at 11,068,861 -- three million short of Nelson's "prophecy". The number of stakes was 2,581, over 1,000 fewer than Nelson's prediction/prophecy. [9]  

1999: Pres. Gordon B Hinckley laid down an audacious goal for the church in the April 1999 General Conference:

"Last year there were approximately 300,000 convert baptisms throughout the Church. This is tremendously significant. But it is not enough. I am not being unrealistic when I say that with concerted effort, with recognition of the duty which falls upon each of us as members of the Church, and with sincere prayer to the Lord for help, we could double that number." [10] 

Reality check: The 600,000 convert baptisms in a year never happened. In fact, 2020 posted a convert baptism rate of less than half that 300k number, which is also less than a quarter of his 600,000 expectation. [11]  

2015: Prophet-seer-revelator Elder Holland said in an interview that:

"But we're greatly blessed, and they [the full-time missionaries] continue to come. They continue to serve. And those numbers will increase. We're projecting out probably within four years, the baseline number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000." [12]  

Reality check: In 2019, there were 67,021 full-time missionaries - a miss by around 1/3.

2015: Elder Quentin L. Cook (Remember: "Prophets of God always speak the truth.") [13] stated in the April 2015 General Conference that:

"The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The number of members removing their names from the records of the church has always been very small and is significantly less in recent years than in the past." [14] 

Reality check: In 2015, the 2014 stats were showing a 1.9% membership growth rate. Is that what the Lord expects of his "one true church"? Of those who supposedly hold the priesthood of God? Of the pre-existence's "chosen" and "valiant" ones? Of prophets/seers/revelators?

2015: A 2015 Deseret News article quoted Seventy Joseph W. Sitati as saying, "The rate of growth [in Africa] has been close to exponential." [15]  

Reality check: Matt Martinich (founder of the LDS Church Growth blog Cumorah.com, which tracks Mormon growth and retention internationally) said, "LDS growth in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be extremely limited. Overall growth trends have appeared much more modest than the 'exponential' growth claims in the recent LDS news release." [16] 

2016: Elder Holland (who also always speaks the truth) told folks at a Young Single Adult Conference in Dallas, TX that:

"We're in the midst of incredible growth, staggering growth in the church. It's the single biggest problem we have. It's the best problem we have, but it's the biggest. We are reeling under the implications of the growth we have in this church. Last Thursday, I've been out here this Thursday, I've been with Elder and Sister Holland and I've been with Elder and Sister Robbins, this week, so I missed the temple meeting this Thursday, but a week ago Thursday we created 15 stakes, and we are doing that más o menos every week, more or less. It might not be 15, but its… the week before it was 12, sometimes it's 8 or whatever and it'll be a little uneven, but the point is, I mean, we are talking double digit stakes every week. Every week of our lives." [17]  

Reality check: That year, the church created 92 new stakes - not even two a week. In 2020, it was exactly one every two weeks. So much for "double digit stakes every week. Every week of our lives." How is the number of missions in 2020 and 2013 being the same considered "staggering growth"? How is a 0.6% growth rate "staggering growth"? How is going from 85,147 to 51,819 (a 39% decrease) in full-time missionaries "staggering growth"?

(By the way, since the apostles are responsible (per scripture) for the church's missionary efforts, I would be interested in reading how many people each of them directly bring into the church each year. You know, some of that "accountability / return and report / lead by example" stuff we're fond of drilling into the heads of the church's local leaders).

Here's what can't be distorted: The church's own reported statistics (the sources are hyperlinked in the year):

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Stakes	3,005	3,050	3,114	3,174	3,266	3,341	3,383	3,437	3,463
Stakes count change		+45	+64	+60	+92	+75	+42	+54	+26
% change		1.4%	2.0%	1.9%	2.8%	2.2%	1.2%	1.5%	0.7%
Missions	347	405	406	418	421	421	413	399	405
Districts	591	571	561	558	556	553	547	542	537
Wards/Branches	29,014	29,253	29,621	30,016	30,304	30,506	30,536	30,940	31,136
Wards count change		+239	+368	+395	+288	+202	+30	+404	+196
Total Mems	14,782,473	15,082,028	15,372,337	15,634,199	15,882,417	16,118,169	16,313,735	16,565,036	16,663,663
Membership change		+299,555	+290,309	+261,862	+248,218	+235,752	+195,566	+251,301	+98,627
% change		2.0%	1.9%	1.7%	1.58%	1.4%	1.21%	1.54%	0.6%
New Children of Record	122,273	115,486	116,409	114,550	109,246	106,771	102,102	94,266	65,440
New CoR change		-6,787	+923	-1,859	-5,304	-2,475	-4,669	7,836	-28,826
Percent growth		-5.5%	0.7%	-1.5%	-4.6%	-2.2%	-4.3%	-7.6%	-30%
Convert baptisms	272,330	282,945	296,803	257,402	240,131	233,729	234,332	248,835	125,930
Convert baptisms change		10,615	13,858	-39,401	-17,271	-6,402	+603	+14,503	-122,905
Percent growth		3.8%	1.92%	1.70%	1.59%	1.47%	0.2%	6.19%	-49.3%
Full-Time Missionaries	58,990	83,035	85,147	74,079	70,946	67,049	65,137	67,021	51,819
Percent growth		40.7%	2.5%	-12.9%	-4.2%	-5.4%	-2.8%	2.8%	-22.6%
Temples in Operation	140	141	144	149	155	159	161	167	168
New temples change		+1	+3	+5	+6	+4	+2	+6	+1

The facts - as published by the church - paint a much different picture than what the Brethren are publicly saying. 

Back in 2018, Martinich called the multiple downward trajectories of church growth "pretty significant." [18]  He also said that U.S. growth has not been this low "in approximately 100 years or longer" (and that was before the even steeper declines within the last four years).

The Big Reality Check

In Russell M. Nelson's aforementioned 1990 BYU devotional, he said that by the year 2000, 

"We will be precisely on course in fulfillment of scriptural prophecy that this work will eventually and literally fill the earth (see D&C 65:2)."

Perhaps we are precisely on course for something all right: a setting in order of the house of God, [19]  because it's so diametrically out of order.

As we read near the top of this post, we are to "seek not the things of this world but seek ye first to build up the kingdom of God."

How is the church doing in seeking not the things of this world? With all its real estate purchases, land and agricultural holdings, stocks/other funds as well as befriending/partnering with organizations which espouse man-made, not god-centered world initiatives, I think it could be said without too much argumentation that the church is awash in the things of this world.

Contrast this with how the church is doing relative to taking the gospel to the world - an almost non-existent membership growth rate, double-digit decreases in new children of record, convert baptisms and full-time missionaries as well as an insignificant amount of humanitarian aid - and it's easy to see that "where your treasure is, there will your heart be also." [20] 

We are told, "Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them." [21] 

What kinds of fruits do they have to show for their labors? If the fruit - that is, the above statistics - are bad, what does the savior say of the tree? That the apostles have primary responsibility over missionary work is indisputable. 

It's also indisputable that the Lord would never give the church an unrealistic goal (like filling the whole earth with the gospel). 

I say it's high time the apostles do what they expect us to do at the local level: Return and Report. Show some accountability. Show some new results.

That should be pretty easy to do for 15 men who are prophets, seers and revelators.

Then again, maybe not...

The November Surprise

With everything we know at the top of the post about the Lord's passion for taking his gospel to the world and baptizing people, it's shocking that Pres. Nelson said in November 2019,

"I don't think the Lord's interested really in how many members of the church we have. What he's interested in is how many of my children choose to come back and enjoy eternal life in his holy presence." [22] 

If that's the case, then:

• Why was God so hot on people being baptized (and therefore, joining the church), but now he's not?
• If the Lord doesn't care, why keep count?
• How does this quote further motivate the full-time missionary force?
• Why have a missionary program at all? 
• Shouldn't the number of members and the number who choose to come back and enjoy eternal life be the same?
• How can people "come back and enjoy eternal life in his holy presence" without baptism? 
• Or is there a new way to "come back and enjoy eternal life in his holy presence" without joining the church?

The longer we stay in this situation, the crazier it gets.

"by their works ye shall know them,

for if their works be good, then

they are good also." (Moroni 7:5)

(OK, manager: How's your team doing? Are they struggling? For how long? Finally, what can be done to straighten out your team (with at least a modest sense of urgency?) I look forward to reading your observations in the comments).

Covid Updates "Available vaccines have proven to be both safe and effective." "We can win this war if everyone will follow the wise and thoughtful recommendations of medical experts and government leaders" "We know that protection from the diseases they cause can only be achieved by immunizing a very high percentage of the population." (First Presidency message of Thursday, August 12, 2021) "by their works ye shall know them, for if their works be good, then they are good also." (Moroni 7:5) "That which is of God inviteth and enticeth to do good continually." (Moroni 7:13) "Whatsoever thing persuadeth men to do evil, and believe not in Christ, and deny him, and serve not God, then ye may know with a perfect knowledge it is of the devil." (Moroni 7:17)

"Safe": Funeral director/embalmer finds bizarre, rubbery blood clots in bodies of the vaccinated "Safe": Pfizer admits in confidential document that COVID-19 vaccine causes Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Disease (same thing as Antibody Dependent Enhancement) "Effective": Scottish data: Covid case rate is highest among fully vaccinated, lowest among unvaccinated.

Sources

 1.   Mark 16:14-16; Matthew 28:19

 2.   D&C 112:28

 3.   "Sharing the Gospel," October 2001 General Conference.

 4.   D&C 124:127-128

 5.   Pres. David O. McKay, "Present Responsibility of the Church in Missionary Work," April 1954 General Conference.

 6.   JST Matthew 6:38.

 7.   "A World Message," April 1970 General Conference.

 8.   https://speeches.byu.edu/talks/russell-m-nelson/reflection-resolution 

 9.   https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/2001/04/statistical-report-2000?lang=eng 

10.   https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/1999/04/find-the-lambs-feed-the-sheep 

11.   https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/april-2021-general-conference-statistical-report 

12.   Jeffrey R Holland interview with Hugh Hewitt, February 27, 2015; https://www.hughhewitt.com/a-conversation-with-lds-elder-jeffrey-holland

13.   Wendy Nelson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKzTucXZLk8&t=44s 

14.   https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/the-lord-is-my-light?lang=eng#24-12565_000_29cook 

15.   https://www.deseret.com/2015/10/9/20574033/major-lds-growth-in-africa-unaffected-by-priesthood-restriction-elder-sitati-says#elder-joseph-w-sitati 

16.   https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=3582770&itype=CMSID 

17.   Jeffrey R. Holland, Young Single Adult Conference, Dallas, TX, April 24, 2016; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrYpRzi6xtY&feature=youtu.be&t=53m35s 

18.   https://religionnews.com/2018/04/13/mormon-growth-continues-to-slow-especially-in-the-u-s 

19.   D&C 85:7.

20.   Matthew 6:21; Luke 12:34; 3 Nephi 13:21.

21.   Matthew 7:20

22.   https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/president-nelson-indonesia-2019